Hello,
Welcome to the Stock Barometer Weekly Stock Market Update, where we discuss the future outlook for the market, what's happening in our trading services and feature an article from one of our services.
Stock Barometer:
We’ve been in Buy Mode since 2/15 (after being in Sell Mode since 1/12), but the market is on shaky ground right here and we could be on the verge of a sharp move lower. Attached is my Bi-Weekly report discussing my outlook for the market. It’s a must read.
But you may find yourself asking – Why would you listen to me? Well, if you had listened to me since May of last year, you’d be up over 83% at this time. Not many (if any) newsletter writers trading mutual funds can tout such a performance.
And it’s not just hype - it is actual performance as verified by an independent third party. Check out the attached chart from TimerTrac:
This chart shows what you would have made following our advice since last May – 10 months ago.
Sound interesting? Ok, now you might be asking how you can learn to follow my system. It’s simple.
First, if you’re a market nut like me and want to get my signals as well as understand what makes the market tick – then subscribe to my Daily Stock Barometer. Each morning you’ll get an update to where we are in the system and what action I’m looking for. I’ll tell you when we’re in Buy Mode and when we’re in Sell Mode and when we get a Buy or Sell Signal. Here’s what my advice looks like on a chart of the QQQQ:
As you can see, we don’t always make money – there are times when the market is choppy and the system consolidates lower. But if you bought when I said to and sold (or shorted the market) when I said to, you’d be up over 83% since May 2005 – that’s 83% in only 10 months!
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE DAILY STOCK BAROMETER FOR ONLY $24.95/MONTH
If you’re not interested in reading my daily reports, you can subscribe to my QQQQ Trader Alert or my Leveraged Rydex Trader Alert and you’ll get an email only when we have a signal. You get that email by 10pm the evening BEFORE you have to make the trade – giving you plenty of time to take action in all your accounts.
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE QQQQ TRADER ALERT FOR ONLY $24.95/MONTH
or
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE LEVERAGED RYDEX TRADER ALERT FOR ONLY $24.95/MONTH
And if you’re interested in getting both the daily advice and one of the trading packages, we have package discounts available.
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO BOTH THE DAILY STOCK BAROMETER AND THE QQQQ TRADER ALERT FOR ONLY $39.95/MONTH.
Or
CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO BOTH THE DAILY STOCK BAROMETER AND THE LEVERAGED RYDEX TRADER ALERT FOR ONLY $39.95/MONTH.
Again, the system is quite easy to follow and if you’re looking to boost your investments over the next year, then you need to subscribe.
Subscribe now and I’ll teach you how to make money in both up and down markets.
Subscribe now and join me as I attempt to break the 100% return mark since last May by making another 17% in gains with only two months to go.
Think of it this way, in the last year, most investors made less than 10% on their money and we’ve made over 8 times that return, in only 10 months. And that’s not hype, its performance that’s verified by TimerTrac, an independent 3rd party.
Attached is a copy of my weekend bi-weekly report – it provides some of the tools I use to measure the market and put my forecast together. I know most of it may sound like a foreign language to you at this time, but if you follow me over the period of a few weeks to months, I’m sure you’ll not only understand it, but learn more about how the market actually works – stuff the talking heads on CNBC or Bloomberg won’t tell you.
Subscribe now. Don’t miss my next signal. And join the small group of investors and traders who have discovered the potential of the Stock Barometer.
Regards,
Jay DeVincentis
Bi-Weekly Stock Barometer No. 132
February 25, 2006
Important Signal Coming?
Dear Subscriber,
The stars are aligning on this signal - here's what to expect.
First of all, we don't have a signal yet, we remain in Buy Mode, but I believe we're close to getting a Sell Signal and this could be a big one.
Ok, now that I have set your expectations, which I always try not to do since the market has a way of not doing what I think it will, lets jump right into the charts and see what we can.
Message From The Markets
Market action is ruled by sentiment and by monitoring market internals and studying sentiment; you can gain reasonably predict future market movements. The basis of the Stock Barometer system is overlaying extremes in sentiment with sound technical analysis to predict the likelihood of future price movement. Each indicator and chart measures the hope, fear and greed of investors and traders from different angles. Follow along with my charts and over time, you'll also learn to understand how to read the markets, which is essential prior to setting up each and every trade.
STOCK BAROMETER CHART
The Daily Stock Barometer is a proprietary measure of market energy. The direction of the stock barometer determines our short-term outlook on the market's direction. A BUY or SELL signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. If the line is moving up, we are in BUY MODE and if it's moving down, we are in SELL MODE. The black line is a 5-day moving average that we use to confirm changes in direction.
EQUITY PUT CALL RATIO CHART
The CBOE put/call ratio is comprised of two sets of data; equity options and index options. The index component contains items that are used as a hedge, thereby distorting the correlation and interpretation of the indicator. I use the equity put/call ratio. This is one of the most accurate read of investor's fear and complacency.
TRIN/ARMS CHART
Richard Arms developed the arms index. It is also referred to the Trading Index or TRIN for short. It is a measure of the ratio of up stocks and down stocks divided by the ratio of up volume and down volume. Our Spread Chart converts the arms index data into momentum Buy and Sell Signals.
TICK CHART
The tick index is represents the sum of all stocks ticking higher minus all stocks ticking lower (a stock is said to be trading on an up tick when it trades at a higher price than the last sale). It's utilized as a day trading tool as it gives you an up to the second read of the intensity of buying and selling.
BREADTH (ADVANCE - DECLINE) CHART
Each day several thousand stocks either advance, decline or remain unchanged. The number of advances and declines normally ranges from +2500 to -2500. A high number of advancing stocks normally marks a top just as a high number of declining stocks normally marks a bottom. Monitoring the 5 and 13-day moving averages of this allows us to better predict future prices.
VXO CHART
The VIX is a measure of volatility on options pricing. We use the old VIX, which is now called the VXO. The higher the volatility, the more likely the market is close to a bottom, as traders are willing to pay more premium for puts, which act as Insurance on their long positions.
Cycle Time
Monday is day 7 in our UP CYCLE.
The Stock Barometer signals tend to follow a 5, 8 and 13 and sometimes 21 day Fibonacci cycle that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2006 potential reversal dates: 1/15, 1/30, 2/24-27, 3/19. We publish dates 2 months out.
The market appears poised to top in the next day or so and head lower into 3/19.
My timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. They're predictive and have nothing to do with the barometer cycle times. However, due to their accuracy in the past, I post the dates here.
2005 Potential reversal dates based on 'other' cycle work were 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
Stock Barometer Buy And Sell Signals
QQQQ or SPY Chart: A chart is provided in every bi-weekly report and shows the barometer Buy and Sell Signals (which are provided in my morning updates) as well as showing the next highlighted 'reversal' window. The numbers adjacent to the buy and sell signals are the number of days between signal (cycle time).
Here's one years of our end-of-day buy and sell signals for the Stock Barometer over the past year. They're marked on the QQQQ chart with red and blue lines (or red and blue arrows).
- 2/28 Projected Next TOP Due (8 days)
- 2/23 BOTTOM (23 days)
- 1/12 TOP (6 days)
- 1/04 BOTTOM (31 days)
- 11/29 TOP (28 days)
- 10/19 BOTTOM (10 days)
- 10/5 TOP (4 days)
- 9/29 BOTTOM (8 days)
- 9/19 TOP (14 days)
- 8/29 BOTTOM (21 days)
- 7/30 TOP (18 days)
- 7/5 BOTTOM (21 days)
- 6/3 TOP (22 days)
- 5/3 BOTTOM (3 days)
- 4/28 TOP (5 days)
- 4/21 BOTTOM (5 days)
- 4/14 TOP (11 days)
- 3/30 BOTTOM (21 days)
- 2/28 TOP (1 day)
- 2/25-3/1 BOTTOM (5 days)
- (all historical dates are published on the home page of my site)
The following work is based on my price based spread/momentum indicators for the USD$, XAU, GLD and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer. Combined with up/down indicators and you have a powerful tool for pinpointing market reversals.
Gold (GLD:AMEX & INDEX:XAU.X)
I monitor Gold in the form of GLD and the XAU as well as the US Dollar Index as a general guide to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets, as well as to assist us in the entry of positions in our Gold Stock Service.
Bonds (Amex:TLT)
I include bonds in our studies and use Lehman’s 20 year ETF, as the direction of bonds can have an inverse impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.
Summary & Outlook
We remain in Buy Mode, dealing with a cycle inversion that suggests the market is in the process of making a top.
The inversion is the reason we were looking for 2/25 to mark a bottom and are now looking for this period to mark a top.
That suggests that the market will move lower into 3/19. And that forecast should hold as long as the market remains below confluence as identified in this chart of the QQQQ.
That move lower should set up a decent bounce - but there's a lot of time left between here and there, so that's merely speculation on my part. If the market gets above confluence, the sell signal may take a few more days to come and it would set up a whole new bottom structure that we'll update in our daily articles.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
As always, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me here at jay@stockbarometer.com.
Regards,
Jay DeVincentis
Trading involves high risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Stockbarometer.com and all individuals affiliated with Stockbarometer.com assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
Earn Money referring us to your friends, family and other traders. Click here for details: http://www.stockbarometer.com/affiliate.aspx
The Daily Stock Barometer is issued each morning by 7:30 am Tuesday through Friday. Monday's article comes out over the weekend. The Bi-weekly Stock Barometer is issued every two weeks in place of the Monday daily report.
The QQQQ Trader and Rydex Trader services are issued by 10pm in the evening when the system triggers a Buy or Sell Signal.
The Explosive Potential is issued as dictated by market action. All for the low price of $9.95 per month or $95 per year.
ETF Advisor is issued at least weekly. Click here for a 4-week Trial.
Click here to learn more about any of our services.
We also offer one 4-week Trial to any of the following services:
Jay DeVincentis' Stock Barometer Premier Membership - get all the services listed above for one low price. Click here to learn more about this exciting offer. The premier service now includes the ETF & Fidelity Fund Advisor.
As a Stock Barometer Subscriber you are entitled to a 4-week Trial to any of our services. Please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com if you have any questions.
To ensure delivery and prevent this e-mail from being delivered to your bulk mail folder, please add our 'From' e-mail address, info@stockbarometer.com, to your address book.
Copyright © 2004-2007 Investment Research Group, Inc. d/b/a www.Stockbarometer.com. All Rights Reserved.
